Welcome back to my blog. Let’s get back to business. Ever willing to stick my neck out, here are my predictions for 2003:

— No war in Iraq. But it depends on Saddam Hussein. I think he will blink. If he does not, he’ll be a wide-eyed witness to his own demise.

— Afghanistan implodes. Karzai gets assassinated. The warlords all have a go at each other.

— Nothing happens in North Korea. They’re just sabre-rattling because the US is busy with Iraq. They might get themselves a non-aggression treaty, and then they’ll let the nuclear monitors back in.

— Russia itself does really well economically, despite Chechnya. Putin provides the law and order, oil prices provide the kick in the ass, and the Russians provide the ingenuity.

— Even the US loses patience with Israel’s collective punishment policies in the West Bank, and nudges them in the direction of unilateral disengagement. By the end of the year, the US is telling Israel (privately, of course) to get those damn settlers the hell outta there.

— Northern Ireland flares up. It has to–my parents are moving to Dublin next month (barring a war in Iraq), and they haven’t been posted in a peaceful country since 1992.

— Sighs.com will return.

— Memefirst.com will become the site you visit most. What am I talking about? Give me another few weeks.

— My sister will get married in April in London.

— Next New Year’s will be spent in a castle on Dingle peninsula, western Ireland.

Did I miss anything?

[Sun, Jan 05 2003 – 18:28] Felix (www) (email) I feel a bet coming on. I’m happy to put the standard BVC on your being wrong on each of your international predictions (Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, Russia, Israel and Northern Ireland). Shall we try to formulate them into simple binary propositions which either will or won’t be true by the time Castle Dingle comes around?

[Mon, Jan 06 2003 – 03:02] kartika (email) And to think you were so contemptuous of my family’s psychic (or “soothsayer” as you insisted on calling her)- you are obviously not averse to doing a Nostradamaus yourself… let us see if you are as accurate as the infamous Flavia(family soothsayer).

Felix- make the bets.

[Mon, Jan 06 2003 – 18:21] Felix (www) (email) Sorry, Kartika, Stefan has declined to put his bottles of bubbly where his mouth is. Pity. One would think that was what bottles of bubbly are for…

[Mon, Jan 06 2003 – 18:38] kartika (email) Well Felix- after the Lord of the Rings fiasco last year he is probably still licking his wounds. Let us respect that until you catch him later, in a weak moment. Hubris ebbs and flows after all.

[Mon, Jan 13 2003 – 09:25] Beth (email) I have some good recommendations on the Dingle Peninsula as I hiked 100 miles around it in August….. And I’m not sure about your Northern Ireland point. Your parents aren’t moving to Belfast, after all. The Brits could all care less and the Northern Irish have realized that having a functioning devolved government is actually kind of nice. Predict continued random violence but that Gerry Adams finally makes a compromise.