Preliminary national election results for Sweden’s xenophobic Sverigedemokraterna are in… and they’re up to 2.79% of the vote according to SvD — way above the exit poll’s 1.9% forecast, and around double their showing in 2002.
We can thus conclude that 1 in 3 Sverigedemokraterna are ashamed of their vote:-) But this figure could rise — the counting of outsider parties in the Skåne region (in the south) is still ongoing, and that’s where the Sverigedemokraterna are strongest. It’s still possible, for example, that when the counting’s done, the party exceeds the 4% threshold to gain representation in parliament.
One milestone has definitely been reached: By passing the 2.5% mark in the national results, the Sverigedemokraterna are now eligible for state support as a party.
What’s in store for Sweden? First, it will try the Belgian option, the cordon sanitaire (quarantine), as reported by The Local:
The party has also been successful in local elections, particularly in Skåne, in the south of the country. In the Skåne town of Landskrona, the Sweden Democrats have won over 22 percent of the votes counted so far. The Social Democrats in the town have said to Moderate and Liberal representatives that they are willing to discuss a grand coalition to keep out the Sweden Democrats.
That won’t make them go away — quite the opposite. Then, my guess is that attempts will be made to declare the Sverigedemokraterna an illegitimate party on the grounds that they are racist, so that they do not get access to tax-funded state support. This won’t stall their momentum either, for exactly the same reasons why it hasn’t worked in Belgium.
Add to this indications that young first-time voters voted disproportionally for the Sverigedemokraterna, and you have yourself the makings of a very different political landscape in Sweden. The solution? Learn from Belgium’s mistakes. Engage the Sverigedemokraterna now on the merits of their arguments — and yes, this means discussing immigration and integration, two topics that both the left and right ignored during the campaign.
So what does this say about the Swedish political landscape in the future? Let me guess.
Sverigedemokraterna will take seat in parliament in 2010. And after that they will continue to grow – like what happened with similar nationalist populists in Belgium, Denmark and Norway.
No established party will engage in debate with Sverigedemokraterna the coming four years. There are two main reasons for that.
First: If the Social democrats want to win the next election (2010) they have to reform, and they have to enter a coalition with at least the Green party. Since the greens would never accept reforms in the direction that would keep voters from jumping from the Social democrats to Sverigedemokraterna, well, it won’t happen. So the Social democrats will not engage in debate – because they would lose if they did, given the fact that 43 % of the Swedish population wants to halt immigration (according to Integrationsverket).
Second: In the right bloc, only Folkpartiet liberalerna has tried to discuss immigration problems at all (in a way that makes sense to people who actually would consider voting for Sverigedemokraterna). Two MPs have been the driving force in this unique experiment: Nyamko Sabuni and Mauricio Rojas. They both lost their seats (but still have a chance: if party leader Lars Leijonborg and educational politics strong man Jan Björklund become ministers, the two get substitute seats). The other parties lack the ambition to talk about immigration and integration, partly due to fear of being accused of racism. Anyway, the main drive for the right bloc these four years will be something else than taking on the populists. They have to rule the country and fend off the socialists.
Meanwhile, Sverigedemokraterna siphons state support (well, you wouldn’t ask of much bigger state funded parties to actually consider scrapping the party funding system, do you?) and builds and builds. Waiting in the wings, for 2010.
So then what?
Well, maybe it is up to us, the people…
I’m not sure about “engaging” Sverigedemokraterna is necessary, in fact I’d rather they continue to not do so. But, I do think that the main political parties has got to stop simply ignoring the integration issues that, clearly, an increasing number of voters feel the need to be adressed and discussed.