{"id":202,"date":"2003-03-24T02:57:07","date_gmt":"2003-03-24T09:57:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stefangeens.com\/?p=202"},"modified":"2003-03-24T02:57:07","modified_gmt":"2003-03-24T09:57:07","slug":"rules-of-engagement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/2003\/03\/rules-of-engagement\/","title":{"rendered":"Rules of engagement?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Predictably, both pro- and anti-war opinion mongers have found much in the war to date to bolster their respective moral high grounds. But that which is predictable is also boring. More interesting is to wonder what it would take to engender a change of heart on either side. Any conviction worth having should be falsifiable. Popper’s theory of epistemology<\/a> turned conventional wisdom on its head in its contribution to the scientific method: Theories are only useful to the extent they are falsifiable, i.e. can be disproved through empirical tests.<\/span>Beliefs that can never be tested against empirical evidence are merely dogmatic. <\/p>\n

So I have constructed a set of tests that I offer up for consideration by both sides of the debate. For example, if you are for the war, you should agree now to admit it was a mistake if most of the following scenarios take place:<\/p>\n

  • Regime change in Pakistan, Egypt, or Jordan as a result of popular unrest caused by the invasion of Iraq. An Islamist and\/or anti-American regime takes hold.<\/li>\n
  • Baghdad citizens stage mass protests or engage in widespread resistance, instead of showing gratitude for their liberation.<\/li>\n
  • US Special Operations forces and Turkish forces engage in skirmishes along the northern front.<\/li>\n
  • A wave of sustained attacks on American interests in Arab countries billed as a direct retaliation for the invasion.<\/li>\n
  • A majority of Iraqi troops, instead of surrendering, start a prolonged guerilla offensive, with popular support.<\/li>\n
  • The prime minister of the UK, Australia or another coalition partner is ousted in a cabinet revolt, and military support is withdrawn.<\/li>\n
  • No weapons of mass destruction found.Update 25\/03\/03<\/font><\/b>: No nukes in Iraq<\/a>, it seems.<\/span><\/li>\n

    Conversely, if you are against the war, you should agree now to admit you were mistaken if most of the following scenarios take place:<\/p>\n

  • Baghdad citizens come out in a mass public show of support for their liberators.Update 25\/03\/03<\/font><\/b>: Popular uprising in Basrah<\/a>?<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Saddam Hussein is shown to possess biological, chemical and nuclear weapons.“Huge” chemical weapons factory found<\/a>?
    Update 25\/03\/03<\/font><\/b>:     Maybe not<\/a>.<\/span>\n<\/li>\n
  • Saddam Hussein uses weapons of mass destruction.<\/li>\n
  • Al Qaeda cells are identified, caught.<\/li>\n
  • War crime trials are held, Iraqi citizens come forward in droves to testify against Saddam Hussein (if alive) or his henchmen.<\/li>\n
  • The newly installed Iraqi representative government convinces Arab public opinion that US interests are aligned with their own.<\/li>\n
  • Israeli-Palestinian negotiations accelerate and a definitive peace agreement is reached.<\/li>\n

    Feel free to suggest your own criteria. It is of course possible for scenarios from both sides to play out, but the<\/em> litmus test, I think, will be the reception of US and UK troops as they enter Baghdad. <\/p>\n

    As far as military objectives are concerned, I think the war is going well for the US, even after today. Anybody who assumed the US and UK would suffer at most the odd flesh wound is placing unrealistic expectations on the coalition. Television coverage is riveting, and worth a post all to its own. Here in Sweden, CNN is on all the time, but another channel achieves balanced coverage by alternating between hours of Fox News and Al Jazeera. Both are blatantly partial, and bizarrely compelling.<\/span><\/p>\n

    But Iraq has the potential of turning into another Vietnam, with a nightmare scenario wherein the civilians are liberated against their will, and good intentions pave a path to hell. Gulf War One is widely considered to have been the war where the US decisively overcame its Vietnam War syndrome. But one hopes that the US military did not forget the lessons of Vietnam. Afghanistan is not a good comparison for the challenges facing the US and UK in Iraq: There are much larger population centers in Iraq, there is a trained, patriotic army defending them, and they have the morale boost of defending their homeland against foreign invaders. The coalition operates with the handicap of an unwillingness to inflict civilian casualties, yet with a likelihood of such casualties occurring and with the success of their mission depending to a large extent on their reception by this civilian population.<\/p>\n

    Confidence based on expectations of inviolability is the most brittle kind. And the morale of soldiers who are not absolutely convinced they must fight to save their families is the most vulnerable. For coalition troops, the coming days will test both their confidence and their morale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Predictably, both pro- and anti-war opinion mongers have found much in the war to date to bolster their respective moral high grounds. But that which is predictable is also boring. More interesting is to wonder what it would take to … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics-economics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7eNhC-3g","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stefangeens.com\/2001-2013\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}