In the middle of a long thread on abortion currently raging on MemeFirst, Jame asked:
I would be curious if there have been any studies done that compare abortion rates in the US with those in Europe, particularly in those countries (such as the Scandinavians) with a good record of supporting child care and motherhood. The implication being that other, less intrusive public policies may be effective at convincing wavering mothers to keep the baby.
I thought I might try to figure that out myself, or at least begin by tabulating the Swedish data, which exists in abundanceIt may not be socialism at its best, but Swedish socialized medicine does produce statistical data that are the envy of th world. Case in point: The unrivalled Swedish twin registry. .
Using birth statistics and abortion numbers broken down by week from the National Board of Health and Welfare, I was able to produce some very interesting graphs charting abortion trends in Sweden over the past 20 yearsHere is the data I collected, in an Excel spreadsheet..
This first chart shows cumulative figures for how pregnancies end in Sweden each year, in absolute terms. The second chart takes this data and normalises it, allowing us to make percentage comparisons across years. This makes the second chart more interesting for our purposes.
The number of stillborn is below 0.4% of total births. I’ve included them with live births to show total births in the graphs, because what we are trying to track here is a mother-to-be’s intentions.
The data presented thus shows that most pregnancies end in birth (green), but that a near-constant 25% end in abortion. This is Sweden’s “abortion ratio”. The ratio has been hovering near this level since 1975, when abortion was legalized.Abortion in Sweden is legal until the 18th week, after which it is only permitted “in cases of severe indications.” A synopsis in English (PDF, on page 8)
Two things are immediately obvious from looking a the data: First, there is a definite trend towards having abortions earlier. In 1985, less than 43% of abortions were performed by the end of the 8th week of pregnancy. In 2004, that figured had climbed to nearly 71%. The percentage of total abortions performed by the end of the 6th week climbed from 3.2% in 1985 to 24.5% in 2004.
Second, the proportion of abortions performed in the second and third trimester stayed near-constant between 1985-2004, at around 3.5%I suspect this is because the majority of these abortions are performed for medical reasons, and that figure tends to remain constant..
How does this stack up to the US? Data is a bit lacking (and lagging), but this document by The Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI) (PDF) from May 2005 (PDF) calculates the abortion ratio in the US at 24.3% in 2002, having dropped gradually from 29.7% in 1985. (1983 was the all-time high, at 30.4%). By comparison, Sweden’s was 25.7% in 2002.
Abortions in the US, 2001. figures by The Alan Guttmacher Institute
Elsewhere, AGI post a pie chart showing when abortions are performed. In 2001, 59.1% of abortions in the US were performed before the end of week 8, vs 66.7% in Sweden (in 2001, for comparison purposes). In the US, 11.9% of abortions were performed after the end of week 12; the equivalent number for Sweden was 4.8%.
The upshot? The US has recently dipped below Sweden in its abortion ratio, but Swedes have moved towards having their abortions much earlier. Stringent pro-lifers tend to focus on absolute numbers of abortions, and tend to discount when an abortion is performed. For those who are pro-choice to some extent, however, when an abortion is performed makes a significant ethical difference, and a trend towards earlier abortions in Sweden is definitely welcome.
I have not yet been able to find abortion figures for the US comparable to those for Sweden — broken down by week across the years. If they are available, an interesting comparison to make would be to calculate the weeks spent in the womb by aborted foetuses as a proportion of total foetus-weeks for all pregnancies. This would present a more nuanced view of progress towards reducing late abortions.
I hate graphs with color! Don’t you know I’m color blind?
In Germany (very low abortion rate), abortions are legal but because the country is so concerned about the population’s negative growth rate, they have made mandatory a 3-day (talk-you-out-of-having-the-abortion) course. If then you still want the abortion you can have it.
If you don’t, however, you will get a monthly stipend to help you support the child until he/she is 18. (Note: everyone, including immigrants, get this stipend not just those who are considering abortion) You also get very generous maternal and paternal leave. Totally unheard of in the US.
Also, Germans are very open about sex. Teenagers have sex in their own homes with their (fully-aware) parents quietly about the house. This openness of course means they are using birth control. Compare this to the US where many teenagers are losing their virginity in the back of a car, attending schools where condoms are not allowed to be distributed and with parents who are not open about sex.
Michelle, I went hunting for data in anticipation of proving you wrong regarding Germany’s abortion ratio, but you’re actually right – Germany’s abortion ratio (abortions as a percentage of pregnancies) is 15%, about 10 percentage points below Swedish and American levels.
I got the data from this excellent resource. Although it doesn’t break down abortions by week performed, it has the exact same figures I used for the Swedish and US ratio.
If you look at this country comparison of the percentage of pregnancies aborted, you notice that it is actually Sweden and the US that are the outliers for abortions, as far as western countries are concerned – most have loewr abortion ratios, or at least lower reported ratios; Sweden’s numbers have the virtue of being painfully accurate.
That said, the rates that some of the Eastern European countries have is wince-inducing — which is why it would be useful to find breakdowns by when the abortions are performed.